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Rates and Statistics

Rates and Statistics

Monetary Policy Indicators

Indicators of Capacity and Inflation Pressures for Canada

The Bank of Canada monitors a wide range of indicators in assessing the extent of pressures on capacity and inflation.The Bank's conventional estimate of the output gap provides an overall assessment of the degree of slack in the economy, but this estimate is subject to considerable uncertainty. This uncertainty is addressed by considering a wide range of indicators in various markets. Many of these indicators are derived from data published by Statistics Canada, but some reflect information gathered by the Bank's regional representatives as well as by various outside sources. For further discussion of uncertainty as well as the information and analysis used to inform monetary policy decisions at the Bank of Canada, see Jenkins and Longworth¹ (2002) and Macklem² (2002).

1. Jenkins, Paul and David Longworth, "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty." Bank of Canada Review, Summer 2002: 3-10.
2. Macklem, Tiff, "Information and Analysis for Monetary Policy: Coming to a Decision." Bank of Canada Review, Summer 2002: 11-18.

(Sources) (Printer-friendly tables)

Note: The following tables are updated two days after the Bank's most recent announcement date for the target overnight rate, based on information available up to that date. When there is a Monetary Policy Report, the tables are updated on the release date of the Report, again based on information available up to the last fixed announcement date.

Updated: 22 July 2010
Next update: 10 September 2010

Inflation (year-over-year percentage change) Selected definitions, graphs and historical data	2008Q3	2008Q4	2009Q1	2009Q2	2009Q3	2009Q4	2010Q1	Latest data
Core inflation	1.6	2.2	1.9	1.9	1.7	1.6	2.0	1.8^May
CPI excluding food, energy, and the effect of changes in indirect taxes	1.7	1.9	1.4	1.3	1.0	1.0	1.2	1.1^May
CPIW	2.7	2.6	2.3	1.9	1.3	1.6	1.6	1.3^May
Weighted median	3.1	3.2	3.1	2.7	2.1	1.6	2.3	2.1^May
MEANSTD	2.3	2.7	2.2	1.9	1.4	1.1	1.4	2.3^May
CPI Inflation	3.4	2.0	1.2	0.1	-0.9	0.8	1.6	1.4^May
Chain price index for GDP	6.1	1.6	-1.3	-3.8	-3.8	0.7	3.4	3.4^Q1
Chain price index for consumption	2.3	1.5	1.0	0.3	-0.5	1.2	1.5	1.5^Q1
Chain price index for consumption excluding food and energy	0.8	1.1	1.4	1.2	0.9	1.5	1.3	1.3^Q1

Product market Selected definitions, graphs and historical data		2008Q3	2008Q4	2009Q1	2009Q2	2009Q3	2009Q4	2010Q1	2010Q2	Latest data
Output gap (Bank of Canada's conventional measure)		1.1	-0.1	-2.3	-3.4	-3.7	-3.0	-1.9		-1.9^Q1 *
Capacity utilization rate	Non-farm goods (%) (1987-2001 avg. = 83.35)	78.2	75.5	70.2	68.1	68.6	71.3	74.2		74.2^Q1
Capacity utilization rate	Manufacturing (%) (1987-2001 avg. = 81.80)	77.0	73.4	66.8	65.5	67.7	70.7	75.0		75.0^Q1
Bank of Canada Regional Office Survey	Difficulty meeting an unanticipated increase in demand/sales (% firms)	47.0	36.0	30.0	28.0	22.0	29.0	30.0	39.0	39.0^Q2
Unfilled orders/shipments - Manufacturing excluding aerospace products and parts		0.65	0.71	0.76	0.73	0.67	0.67	0.69		0.70^May
Aggregate stock-to-sales ratio		0.611	0.646	0.698	0.716	0.699	0.670	0.647		0.647^Q1

* As shown in the most recent issue of the Monetary Policy Report.

Labour market Selected definitions, graphs and historical data	2008Q3	2008Q4	2009Q1	2009Q2	2009Q3	2009Q4	2010Q1	2010Q2	Latest data
Unemployment rate (%)	6.1	6.5	7.8	8.4	8.5	8.4	8.2	8.0	7.9^Jun
Participation rate (%)	67.7	67.7	67.4	67.4	67.2	67.1	67.0	67.3	67.4^Jun
Growth in employment (annualized rate, %)	0.1	-0.2	-5.9	-1.1	-0.1	1.3	1.6	4.2	0.5^Jun (1)
Labour shortage (% firms) - All sectors (Bank of Canada Regional Office Survey)	36.0	20.0	13.0	17.0	16.0	7.0	12.0	12.0	12.0^Q2

1. Percentage change at monthly rate.

Wages and costs (year-over-year percentage change) Selected definitions, graphs and historical data		2008Q3	2008Q4	2009Q1	2009Q2	2009Q3	2009Q4	2010Q1	2010Q2	Latest data
Labour Force Survey - average hourly earnings (unweighted)	All employees	4.1	4.4	4.3	3.7	3.1	2.7	2.1	2.1	1.7^Jun
Labour Force Survey - average hourly earnings (unweighted)	Permanent employees	3.8	4.5	4.2	3.6	3.0	2.4	2.4	2.3	2.0^Jun
Wage settlements - Private sector		3.0	2.9	2.9	1.9	1.6	1.6	1.8		2.4^May
Compensation per hour - Business sector		3.1	3.8	3.7	2.9	2.3	2.1	1.3		1.3^Q1
Unit labour costs - Total economy (labour income/GDP at market prices)		4.1	4.5	3.6	2.8	2.5	1.5	0.2		0.2^Q1
Unit labour costs - Business sector		4.0	4.5	3.5	2.6	2.2	1.0	-0.4		-0.4^Q1
Bank of Canada commodity price index	Total	31.8	-17.8	-36.7	-43.4	-36.6	3.7	28.5	22.5	16.7^Jun
	Energy	56.6	-22.4	-47.6	-56.1	-48.7	2.2	44.9	33.9	14.7^Jun
	Non-energy	8.2	-12.6	-24.1	-24.9	-20.0	5.1	15.5	12.9	19.9^Jun

Real estate market (year-over-year percentage change) Selected definitions, graphs and historical data		2008Q3	2008Q4	2009Q1	2009Q2	2009Q3	2009Q4	2010Q1	2010Q2	Latest data
New-housing price index		2.3	0.9	-1.6	-3.1	-3.0	-1.5	0.9		2.9^May
Resale-housing prices: www.royallepage.ca		2.4	-2.3	-5.1	-4.0	-0.8	5.7	10.7		10.7^Q1
Vacancy rate	apartments (%)		2.2				2.8			2.8^09Q4
	offices (%)	5.9	6.1	6.8	7.6	8.2	8.5	8.8	9.0	9.0^Q2
	industrial market (%)	5.3	5.8	6.2	6.8	7.0	6.8	6.4		6.4^Q1

Expectations (year-over-year percentage change) Selected definitions and graphs		2008Q3	2008Q4	2009Q1	2009Q2	2009Q3	2009Q4	2010Q1	2010Q2	Latest data
www.conferenceboard.ca Percentage of firms expecting price increases over the next six months of:	1% or less	24	67	72	55	52	47	17		17^Q1
	2% or less	61	89	92	89	89	87	70		70^Q1
	3% or less	86	96	99	99	96	96	85		85^Q1
	more than 3%	14	4	2	1	3	4	15		15^Q1
www.consensuseconomics.com CPI inflation: Consensus Forecasts	2009	2.2	1.6	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.3			0.3^Dec
	2010			1.9	1.7	1.8	1.7	1.8	1.9	1.9^Jun
	2011							2.2	2.2	2.2^Jun
	2-3 years		2.0		2.2		2.2			2.2
	6-10 years		2.0		2.1		2.0			2.0
Bank of Canada Regional Office Survey — Percentage of firms expecting CPI inflation over the next two years to be:	Less than 1%	1	30	41	11	6	9	0	2	2^Q2
	1-2%	18	43	37	49	49	61	54	50	50^Q2
	2-3%	48	22	15	35	34	20	40	45	45^Q2
	more than 3%	32	3	4	4	11	7	6	3	3^Q2
Expectations implicit in real/nominal bond spread		2.4	1.6	1.5	1.9	2.1	2.3	2.5	2.4	2.3^Jun